Claim: ‘Megadrought risks in Southwest soar as atmosphere warms’ based on model, ignores records

Watts Up With That?

From Cornell University and the CMIP modeling jockeys comes this claim:

ITHACA, N.Y. – As a consequence of a warming Earth, the risk of a megadrought – one that lasts more than 35 years – in the American Southwest likely will rise from a low chance over the past thousand years to a 20- to 50-percent chance in this century. However, by slashing greenhouse gas emissions, these risks are nearly cut in half, according to a Cornell-led study in Science Advances, Oct. 5.

“Megadroughts are rare events, occurring only once or twice each millennium. In earlier work, we showed that climate change boosts the chances of a megadrought, but in this paper we investigated how cutting fossil fuel emissions reduces this risk,” said lead author Toby Ault, Cornell professor of earth and atmospheric science.

If climate change goes unabated – and causes more than a 2-degree Celsius rise in atmospheric…

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