ANALYSIS: The inevitable collapse of the UK economy, and why delayed Brexit will make it far worse

The Slog.

metoughThe current global obsession with Brexit is not, in the fullness of time, going to fool historians. The one regrettable thing about the UK vote to leave the EU is that is has allowed most Brits to ignore one certainty: our economy is hopelessly unbalanced, and dangerously exposed to Crash2. Rigid ideology has extinguished the British voyager gene.

In Autumn 2013, the services sector of the UK economy was 72% of gdp. Today – just three years later – it’s 79% of gdp.

On the same basis, manufacturing was 10.8%, and today it’s 9.1%. This simple table shows the obvious trend over time:


If these rates of relative increase and decline between the two continue, by 2020, we will be an 87% services and 7.7%  manufacturing economy. But if that sounds lopsided, it gets worse when one moves into the export sector.

In net terms, we lose money on every…

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